Luck or Breakout is a free fantasy baseball tool that tells you whether a player's hot stretch is a lucky fluke bound to regress or a sustainable breakout backed by real skill. It scores the run from 0–100 and labels it BREAKOUT, REAL, MIXED, or FLUKE — so you know whether to buy low, sell high, or hold.
For hitters, the hot stat is OPS over the window. A spike driven mostly by a high BABIP with no gain in isolated power (ISO), contact (strikeout rate), or walks is flagged as luck. Real gains in power and contact against the player's own season baseline point to a genuine breakout.
For pitchers, the hot stat is ERA. A shiny ERA is only as real as the peripherals behind it. An ERA far below FIP, a suppressed BABIP-against, and an unusually high strand rate (LOB%) all signal luck that should regress. Strong strikeout and walk skills point to a real step forward.
Look under the surface stats. For hitters, a high BABIP with flat power and contact is a fluke; for pitchers, an ERA well below FIP with a low BABIP-against and high strand rate is a fluke. This tool computes those gaps for you and scores sustainability.
BABIP is batting average on balls in play. It swings a lot game to game and tends to regress toward a stable level, so an outlier BABIP is often the tell that a hot or cold stretch is more luck than skill.
If the tool grades a hot stretch as a FLUKE, it's a sell-high candidate; if it grades as BREAKOUT or REAL, the production is more likely to stick. It's research and entertainment, not financial or betting advice.
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